Be a Fish Bait Reroll Calculator

By Jim Liu · Last updated 2026-07-08

Pick an aura, type one number, and see your real odds - how many rerolls it actually takes to reach a given confidence level, not just the flat per-roll percentage.

• Leviathan: ~1,150 rerolls for 90% confidence, 500 on average
• Kraken: ~287 rerolls for 90% confidence, 125 on average
• Odds come straight from the same weight table as the Aura Tier List
• No pity system seen in-game - every reroll is independent

Target aura

Question

Rerolls you have

18.1% chance of Leviathan in 100 rerolls

On average: 1 in 500 rerolls to land Leviathan once (Mythic tier, 0.2% per roll).

Odds table - every aura at 100 rerolls

A fixed reference point so you can compare auras side by side without touching the calculator above. Chance shown is the probability of landing that aura at least once across 100 independent rerolls; average is how many rerolls it typically takes.

Aura	Rarity	Chance at 100 rerolls	Average rerolls to land it
Leviathan	Mythic	18.1%	1 in 500
Kraken	Legendary	55.2%	1 in 125
Solar Fin	Legendary	39.4%	1 in 200
Voltage	Epic	92.8%	1 in 38
Stormcall	Epic	85.3%	1 in 53
Frost	Rare	99.8%	1 in 17
Tide	Rare	99.4%	1 in 20
Kelp	Uncommon	99.9%+	1 in 6
Current	Uncommon	99.9%+	1 in 8
Ripple	Common	99.9%+	1 in 3
Pebble	Common	99.9%+	1 in 4

How the math works

Each reroll is independent, so missing an aura on one try doesn't change your odds on the next. That makes this standard binomial probability: if a single reroll has a p% chance of hitting your target, the chance of missing every one of n rerolls is (1-p)^n, so the chance of landing it at least once is 1 minus that. Flip the calculator to “I want X% odds” and it solves the same equation in reverse to find the reroll count.

One honest limitation: this assumes the odds you see in-game hold steady and there's no hidden pity mechanic. If that changes in a future update, the math on this page would need an update too - for now it matches what the aura roll screen actually displays.

What the grind actually looks like

The math above is the theory - here's an actual Extinct-rarity chase playing out, rerolls and all.

FAQ

How many rerolls do I need for a 90% chance at Leviathan?

About 1,150 rerolls to cross 90% confidence at Leviathan's 0.2% rate. That's a lot more than most players will burn through in one sitting - the calculator above shows the exact number for whatever aura and confidence level you're chasing, since the jump from 50% to 90% confidence isn't linear.

What's the average number of rerolls before a Legendary aura lands?

It depends which Legendary - Kraken averages 1 in 125 rerolls (0.8% per roll), Solar Fin averages 1 in 200 (0.5%). Averages are just that, though: plenty of players land one well before the average, and plenty go noticeably past it. Pick the specific aura in the calculator to see its own expected-value number.

Does this reroll calculator use the real in-game odds?

Yes - the same weight table the Aura Tier List pulls from, not a rounded guess. Leviathan is 0.2%, Kraken 0.8%, Solar Fin 0.5%, and so on down to Ripple and Pebble at 30% and 25%. The math (1 minus the chance of missing every time) is standard binomial probability, not a custom curve.

Is there a pity system, or does every reroll reset your odds?

We haven't seen evidence of a pity or bad-luck-protection system in Be a Fish Bait - every reroll looks independent, same as a coin flip that doesn't remember the last flip. That's the assumption this calculator makes. If a pity mechanic gets added or discovered later, the math here would need revisiting, so treat the numbers as a probability estimate, not a countdown.

How many rerolls guarantee a Mythic aura?

None - Leviathan can't be guaranteed at any finite reroll count, only pushed toward near-certainty. At 500 rerolls (the average) you're only at about 63%. Past roughly 1,500-2,000 rerolls the odds are high enough that the calculator just shows "999+ (practically guaranteed)" instead of an exact figure, since the difference between 99.9% and 99.99% isn't meaningfully different in practice.